Current Market Conditions

After a week of sound a slim recovery, the market still jittery, up and down in the day, as well as on daily basis. Today is up and tomorrow is down with big % involvement. Still no one have a good and positive sentiment. A day or two, investor has restored their confident but suddenly bad news come up again.

Last two week, global goverment bailed out most of the bank on their respective country, europe, UK, Aussie, Asian etc, just try to save the whole world. Market back a bit, sign of rebound , eventough, the volatility remain very very high, Dow index span more than 1000 point in just one day transaction, never happen before.

The bottom of the market is still still still " not insight yet "..... very scarry....indeed !
This is just financial crisis, not credit business activities yet, however, lack of liquidity. Indonesian bank is also stop pouring credit into the market, just maintaining the existing credit loan portfolio. What's mean to economy and GDP, practially there will be limited growth. Our GDP target of 6.3% , it will be very hard to achieve. Inflation is already 12+% yoy upto Aug 2008, the inflation will unvoidable to close to double digit.

At the currency situation is also the same as the above, our Rupiah experienced worst so far to hit 10, 300 on Oct 10th, 2008, before back to below 10,000, at 9,800 level. Mr Budiono try to defend our Rupiah and also increase SBI by 25 bp to 9.50%, this a bit help to sustain Rupiah.

In Fixed Income Market, the market also very thin, YTM for both Sun ( Surat Utang Negara) and Corporate Bond has increased to about 1.5 %, YTM on Sun and Corp bond is 13% and 16% respectively. CDS, Credit default Swap for Sun is also increased along with the increase of risk to 1.5 %. Another bad news, is Indover in Holland, which now is still under discussion whether our Goverment want to rescue or not.

How about real sector, real business, industry, manufacturing, buying power, declining commodity price such oil and gas, CPO, Soya bean, Based metal like nickle, tins, braze, copper, iron etc except gold. Demand so weak.
China just report to slow growth at 9 % instead of 10 % usually, demand remain sluggish !
Inflation shoot up, interest rate to couple inflation is also up !

Today, all asian regional market slumped and tumbled from min 3-7 %, Jakarta too....
Last two days, mom bought ITMG at 9,450 just the following day, Tuesday sold at 11,450.
Today , mom does not want to take any position, Risk Averse !

Yesterday, I have a meeting with my boss. My company portfolio is also go thit badly. We discuss it over how to overcome it. We come up with the ideo to cut loss some the one not potential anymore to stay CASH, so we have a weapon of cash to buy something potentially good. Also our strategy has to change to trading more shorterm basis ratherthan investment. Now, it's different ball game. Different ball game, has to use different strategy suitable for this too.

Learning from this situation is crucial for everybody ! Now, I can claim that I have two-crisis- experienced. One was in 1998 and the second one is now, underway ! Nobody know gonna happen tomorrow, not even Obama or Mccain.
Like I said, the bottom is not insight yet !
Stay cash is the best and very strategic action.

Moral on this : We have to have assets allocation, in term of cash, stock, properties, gold, insurance. The weighted ( %) of this is vary for everybody. For this situation stay cash more than 50 % is wisdomly recommended !

The most important things is the asset allocation is Pray every time and still believe in God ! be positive and rational, then we have to reduce our SURVIVAL COST to sustain our endurance to face the worst and long crisis situation. GBU

Salah siapa ? Freegan, Emily and Brooklyn bridge.

Tulisan ku yang ke tiga.

Salah siapa ? One must responsible for your own conduct and activitiy

Karena akuarium di kantor penuh, aku suruh Aput, OB kantor bungkus satu ekor, yaitu ryukin, dg pemikiran selain msh akan di besarkan ( current size 21 cm), aku juga mau ikutan kontes akir bln. Biasa dari kantor di kantong tanpa oksigen, aku lsg meluncur bintaro jam 5.30an, macet memang, perlu 1 jam lebih sampe di bintaro jam 6.30an...Sesampai di rmh, aku cuman berpikir tentang cuci filter air dulu, baru ngurus ikan, karena tanpa air yang bagus percuma juga bukan, jadi lah aku backwash dulu diatas, setelah itu aku ngurus ikan spt malam2 biasanya selama 2 minggu ini. Jam 7.30 aku teringat ada yang kurang nih ? apa ya ? o ya , ikan dari kantor mana ? si Asbu, sopir lupa turunkan ikan, aku cari asbu, ga ada ... kemana dia ? aku telp tdk aktif, panic aku.. krn ingat ikan tanpa oksigen yang layak. Aku minta Aput, agar cariin asbu juga. Sempet tanya siapa tadi yang masukin ikan ke mobil, Aput bilang saya dan asbu, gotongan/barengan ! wah lupa si asbu. Ga lama jam 8 an, Asbu datang, aku tanya mana ikan ? dg enteng, o ya ya lupa pak ! ga pake sorry2, tanpa merasa bersalah, dia turunkan ikan, sang ikan uda terbalik, pasti lah krn shortage of oxigen, aku kan pengalaman maen ikan dari kecil. Buru2 aku atur di atas, aku bawa sendiri, krn aku sedang sebal sama sopir ini. Sesampai diatas aku ceburin ke kolam dg oksigen yang tinggi/kaya dg oksigen, ga brp lama ikan udah normal berenang nya , kecuali napasnya msh berat !!!! tersengal3

Jam 10.30 malam selesai kerja ngurus ikan, sekali lagi aku cek, ikan sdh normal renang nya, cuman terliaht lemah lunglai... napas masih tersengal2.

Malang ga bisa ditolak ! Besok nya, Mommy plg, eh... kedapatan ikan uda terbalik, mom telp ke aku, pas aku sdg mau meeting dg Bapepam, u know bapepam kan ? aku cuman bilang do yr best to mommy. Ga lama Josie telp... minta di jemput ! ya itu dia ... ga sempet di apa2in lagi. Seperti biasa selesai kantor aku ke bintaro, lsg naik ke kolam ikan ybs..... aku dapatin uda kaku.... dg sedih aku masukan jasad ikan ku ke dalam plastik yang clear/transparant agar si asbu kalau buang ngeliat ! Ini ikan ikut udah kira2 3 tahun, dan membesarkan mencapai ukuran ini tdk mudah, temen2 nya uda gugur sejak awal, ada yang di lego krn krg bagus, ada yang mati adau yang di kasih orang sebagai hadiah. Si Asbu , cuman minta maaf, yg menurut aku, asal bunyi, sesuai namanya ASBU ! asal bunyi !!!!! dia bilang , maaf pak , lupa . Ha ha ha lupa ya pasti inget !

Dg emosi aku tegur dia, kalau sekali lagi kalau ada kesalahan tentang ikan, sorry to say, without regret and very firm , I fired u !!!! On the way to apartment, I realized that I am the one who is suffering and one the one who is responsible for my own thing/fish, so basically it was my fault !!! my mistake !!!! Aku juga merasa bersalah, karena udah emosi, harusnya aku bisa lebih arif/wisdom on this situation. Me still learning like other human being !

Happened once again in the office, I have a meeting, a bi-monthly meeting with Bursa, as I am one of the committee in the bourse. I need this meeting as I gather so much information, especially the latest info for the present worst conditions. U know what has happened ? I forgot to wrote down in the my calender, however, I have instructed my secretary, Vanye, to remind me about the meeting. Just this morning, I asked her, when is the meeting ? she checked and with tremble voice, she said it shud be today, now...... ! what the hellllllll is that ???? Again, am the one who is suffering and am the one who is responsible, nobody care if it's my secretary mistake or forgot !

Moral on those two events is don't ever2 thrust or believe anybody but your yourself ! you are the one who is responsible on your own activities.

Freegan life style, is good or bad ?

Last nite, I went to trimm my hair, sambil di potong rambutku yang sdh mulai curly ( menurut mommy mulai curly kalu panjang), aku baca majalah dan salah satu nya di mention tentang Freegan, yang pernah di muat di Oprah show. Anti consumerism, aku jadi pengen mengerti apa sih ? tentang apa sih ? ini website, tp blm sempet baca juga.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freeganism

Brooklyn Bridge and Emily Warren Roebling

This Morning, I read may daily bread. Come out with Emily ! Story nya... adalah Suami Emily, di wariskan pekerjaan utk membangun jembatan brooklyn oleh mertua Emily atau bapak sang suami. Kerja punya kerja, ga lama pun sang suami sakit2 dan tdk bisa bekerja lagi. Now what ???? Emily berusaha belajar dari sang suami, how to build the bridge ! no matter what is her back ground , a house wife ! Step by step , learning with heart and focus, as well as sang suami yang tekun memberi petunjuk, at last... finally, Brooklyn bridge selesai... sampe sekarang membentang kokoh sepanjang 1,825 meter diatas East River dan menghubungkan Brooklyn and Manhattan di Amrik ! Semua di tuntaskan oleh Emily Warren Roebling! Setting in year of 1870, morethan 100 years ago .

Moral : percobaan sering membawa kita naik satu tingkat lebih tinggi. Pass thru many problems, we face with our undiscovered ability, learning about what is important in Passionate, love, family spirit and value, and the true friendship. Most important thing is the experience always with God support and partisipation. Merasakan pengalaman penyertaan Tuhan yang luar biasa.
( Taken from my Daily bread wed oct 22, 2008)

Kalau kita tengah dalam pergumulan hebat dan berat, Jangan pernah putus asa. Tuhan punya rencana yang besar dalam hidup kita semua.

"Hanya dari kata orang saja aku mendengar tentang Engkau, tetapi sekarang mataku sendiri memandang Engkau" ayat 5. Ayub 42:5

Posting Selanjutnya..... besok3 deh

Roti Lauw, Dropsy, friend visit, Wedding parties, nonton boxing, motogp, F1 and cape

Roti Lauw classic yang terkenal

Sabtu pagi di Bintaro, hari masih setengah gelap tapi mata sudah terbuka. Sabtu, what a special day, it's weekend. Buka pintu rumah terdengar suara familiar tp sdh lama tdk denger, Roti Lauw... Roti Lauw, sendirian di rmh, aku pikir mau keluar rmh juga males, coba deh uda lama ga makan roti Lauw. Bang2 tgu bentar, mau roti nya dong. Ada roti tawar ? Ada nih, kata si abang, kebeneran roti tawar unggulan dari 30 th lalu. Wow.... uda lupa gimana ya, padahal saat pertama ke jakarta, roti Lauw dan roti Tan Ek Tjoan adalah langgan ku, Holland backery baru buka dan termasuk high class serta tdk berkeliling. Kembali ke roti, aku ambil roti tawar satu, roti coklat unggulan 3 dan 1 roti gambang ( aku doyan ini). Total u guess ? just 19rb.

Aku coba roti coklat nya msh spt yang doeloe, mungkin aku uda jarang makan spt ini aja, adonan dan kombinasi coklat yang kasar, aku bisa menikmatin , just fine ! terus aku lanjutkan dg roti gambang ( roti coklat padat, agak keras dan sedikit di taburin bulir2 wijen). Griesss aku caplok si gambang, taste masih acceptable tp baunya kok tengik ? wah ini mungkin krn minyak naik ya, jadi pake bahan yang krg bagus. Ya uda aku caplok abis aja deh, dg terpaksa. Masih lapar ? tidak juga tp kan mau kerja , bersih kolam dll, physical activities need energy, so sekalian coba roti tawar. Aku keluar kan selai nanas dan madu cair. Pake nanas di olesin di roti tawar kuno/classic dan masih empuk, eh... u know what ? enak juga, mau juga nih langganan, rasanya berkelas dan berkarakter ( roti kok berkarater ?? that's my point ! berkarakter ! totally different concept with breadtalk punya roti tawar ). Coba yang ke dua, dg mati kali ini, wow tambah nikmat ! delicious ! indeed ! get addicted nih to roti tawar nya....... wanna try ???? Josie dan Mommy , aku tawarin, eh boro2 mau, nengok juga tidak ha ha ha ha ha.

A visit from a friend, a goldfish hobbyst.

Jam menunjukan jam 11 an, Victor mampir ke rumah, kita lihat2 ikan satu persatu, di mulai di lantai bawah, kolam lama, dg cuman 7 ekor ikan. Ryukin broadtail 22 cm uda piara setahun di mulai dari kecil saat cuman 6 cm in July 2007, terus oranda2 23 cm dulu ambil dari Raymond Depok masih 8 cm in April 2008, dst nya , terus lihat2 ryukin 23 cm dari Spore, serta Ranchu China 17 cm. Komentar Victor , ikan bagus2 dan sehat ! denger komentar nya, enak juga di hati dan kuping, paling tidak, cara ngerawat udah on the right track !

Selanjutnya kolam ke dua, ranchu2 dari Mr Ek, Thailand, dulu beli 32 ekor terus sisa cuman 10 ekoran, baik di adopsi temen2, juga di jual serta mati 3 ekor. Setelah lihat2 ranchu terakir cari ranchu ke 5 atau terakir di kolam bawah, karena 5 lain ada di atas lantai 2. Akir nya ketemu setelah ubek2 carinya, maklum airnya hijau, spt japanese tea. Malang ga bisa di tolak ternyata kena Dropsy. Dropsy suatu penyakit, kompensasi krn tdk bisa pups tdk mengeluarkan zat2 racun dan zat yang tdk terpakai melalui saluran aslinya/seharusnya yaitu dubur, akirnya mampet terus terpaksa keluar via sisik sisik, jadilah sisik mekar. kasihan ya. Aku rawat dg di pindahkan ke akuarium kecil di obatin dg garam enggris agar, sekresi nya bisa lancar , setelah sehari semalam, akrinya pagi2 , mati juga, kasihan. Padahal ikan bagus, potensi menjadi besar.

Setelah Victor pulang, melanjutkan kembali bersihakan kolam, lunch ? skip lunch cuman makan buat mangga beli dari abang2 yang lewat, beli 2 kg, @ 5000.
Jam 4 sore, selesai kerja dan mandi, kita makan di rest padang, sederhana bintaro, agar cepat.

Dua kondangan Wedding party dalam semalam

Mom udah telp agar cepat plg ke apt, karena mau pergi kondangan, si Doni, my cousing get married jam 6-8 mlm, lalu ke hotel Kempinsky krn Pak Tonny mantu di sana jam 7-9 mlm. Pesta Doni hanya terbatas keluarga saja, di poolside sdg pesta anak pak Tonny , serba mewah meriah dan mahal, yang dtg orang terkenal, termasuk Pak Budi Hartono, ceo and owner of Djarum Group. Souvenirnya ? kita di photo bertiga dg Mom and Josie, terus langsung jadi, ga sampe 5 menit, trus di taruh di pigura yang di kasih. Plg sangat malam ke bintaro, cape juga.

Minggu Pagi, Nonton boxing, motogp and F1 and Cape !

Too tired to get up, we missed to go to Church !
Seperti biasa, aku bersihkan kolam dan akuarium, sdg mom nyuci, krn mbak blm plg dr kampoeng. Jam 10.30 , aku nonton boxing pavlik vs hopskin, yang di menang in oleh the latter, Wisdom skulling the youth ! terus bbrp saat kemudian aku nonton motogp, start agak terlambat, padahal Josie uda panggil2 3x, maklum tdk denger, karena di luar , suara air kencang ! jam 12 an kita makan pizza hut krn tdk sempet pergi keluar rmh, karena masih mau nonton F1 jam 13.30. Akir nya Rossi menang lagi utk ke 9 kali nya, sdg F1 , Hamilton juara 1, jagoan ku Alonzo maintain di no 4 the best possible for him this time.

Selesai nonton jam 4, mom masih meneytrika pakean, karena cape banget ya aku bobo aja deh, cape amat ! satu jam tidur bangun jam 5 sore, akirnya bangun juga, terus beres2 kolam, mandi jam 6, utk selanjutnya beres2 barang utk ke apt. jam 7 krg kita berangkat ! U know what ? ada yang left behind ! HP Josie ! kita plg ke rmh, untung masih di komplek.

Di Apt, kita telp MNC, monitor network center, bgn internet indonet kalau rusak, dg di guide mereka, akirnya internet bisa on, aku dah cape, Josie yang take care the internet, Aku bobo aja deh.

Week end yang cape dan full of activities !

Abang Beca

Once upon a time in small city. a Bapak tereak2, hai Bang2 abang beca, tlg kemari panggil Bapak bersama 2 anaknya. Ya pak, mau kemana ? Begini nih, ke Alon Alon berapa duit ? Goceng . Ok, kalau anak2 bayar ga ? O , tentu tidak , jwb Abang tk beca. si Bapak, bilang begini : ya udah anak2 jalan duluan. Teruslah ke dua anak nya naik dg turut si Abang tk beca. Ga lama sampe di Alon2 juga. Si Abang dan anak2 , tunggu aja disitu. Tunggu punya tunggu, ga lama si bapak muncul ke Alon Alon juga. Si bapak bilang ke Abang tk Beca, bang terima kasih ya. Si Abang jadi bingung kok cuma di kasih terima kasih ? mana duit nya ? mana Goceng nya ? Abang tk beca, tanya ke si bapak, pak pak tunggu dulu jangan pergi, mana duit nya yg goceng ? Si Bapak, terpaksa berhenti dan berpaling, hi Abang, tadi pan udah ngomong, kan. Saya tanya ke alon2 berapa duit ? goceng, Anak2 bayar kagak ? elu jawab kagak, FOC ( free of charge), nah anak2 naik beca ( tricycle), kok di suruh bayar lagi ? gimana sih ? ludah keluar tdk bisa di tarik lagi dong ! Si Abang beca jadi terkesima ( shock !) Nah elu, iya iya emang tadi gue bicara spt itu. Dasar nih ! dasar si bapak pelit ama orang kecil !
Moral cerita :
Tega2 nya si bapak ama orang kecil !
Bodoh banget si Abang beca , harus lebih smart dong, nah poverty alleviation is needed !
Ini bukan untuk mendiscreditkan tg becak, utk pesan moral aja !
Communication is also important !